Good morning. Most of you, at least those who watch any sort of news, are aware that a recent poll, done by one of those reputable polling organizations, asked an adequate sample of people whether they described themselves as “Republicans”, “Democrats” or Independents.”
To the surprise of some, the numbers skewed dramatically in favor of “independent” — if memory serves, it was something like 25% Republican, 25% Democrat and 49ish percent independent. Whatever the actual numbers, the two takeaways were (1) the same number of people identified as Republicans as Democrats, and (2) a whole bunch more people now called themselves “independent.”
Now, I can call myself six-foot-one, but it’s not going to change the fact that I’m, well, not that tall. Calling oneself “independent” is not the same as calling oneself a Republican or Democrat; in fact, it’s like saying that the three possible answers were “4”, “5”, or “blue.”
The media on both sides are falling all over themselves trying to portray this outcome — and I’m perfectly comfortable accepting the results — as saying that 49% (OK, we’ll say “half”) of Americans are “moderate” or “centrist”, and that’s extremely wrong. For a bit more on this, try this brilliant piece: https://robertsutton.substack.com/p/the-myth-of-the-moderate.
To say that one is “independent”, when the other two choices are Republican and Democrat, is not to say what the poll respondent is, but rather what the respondent isn’t. Meaning, of course, that the “independent” choosers are simply not willing to call themselves as in one or the other party.
They are not, oh, so definitely not saying what they believe in.
If you start with where 100% of adults feel on the great issues of the day, they will overwhelmingly assort into two large groups (you did read the link, right?}. The ones who believe in lower taxes, less government, law and order, two genders, lower regulation, drilling for oil, strong defense, capitalism and the like are in the “conservative” group, and the ones who bizarrely think raising taxes somehow adds revenue, that big government is good, solar energy is the future, there are 87 genders, diplomacy works with dictators and the like, are in the “liberal” group.
Two large groups. People assort into one of the two because what makes you feel one way about Issue #1 is the same impetus that makes you feel a certain way about Issues #2, #3 and #4.
“Independents” are not independent because they fit somewhere between liberal and conservative; the label “independent” has nothing to do with what people believe in. It is simply a convenient term to avoid telling a polling company a particular label applies to you.
So why, then, are the news networks trying to tell us that it means that more people than ever are in some kind of nonexistent “center”, when there is no such place?
Well, I understand the leftist media — CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS and NBC — doing so. They’d love to characterize the current administration as something other than incompetent socialists, and since they are in power, they can say “See, people are really centrists and they still voted for Biden, so he must be a moderate.”
And the more conservative outlets, like Fox and Newsmax, would like to think that the poll tells us that Americans are moving away from the liberalism that must have led to Biden getting elected.
That, friends, is lazy journalism. The answer comes from going back to the thing a few paragraphs back with the “4”, “5” and “blue” in it. “Independent” is not about a belief system; it is a label that half the polled people are now using to avoid letting the caller know a blessed thing about how they feel.
Think about it … lots of people will treat you with contempt if they ask you and you answer “Republican”, and lots will treat you with contempt if you reply “Democrat.” But no one will get upset with you for answering “independent”, right? In fact, because “independent” has nothing to do with a political belief system, it is a convenient way to tell a polling caller to go pound salt in their ear, but really, you know, politely.
So what do we take from that poll? If anything, it is that there is some serious contempt for the organizational leadership of the two parties, particularly of the Democrats (the 25% Republican response rate is pretty much what it usually is). It does not, and I can’t stress this enough, suggest that people are being any less liberal and less conservative.
Because people are who they have always been. And it is not “independent.”
Copyright 2014-2023 by Robert Sutton
Like what you read here? Forward it to your friends! There's a new piece or so from Bob often, here on Substack. Reach out on Twitter at @rmosutton. Subscribe please (it’s cheap!) to see all of them, at robertsutton.substack.com. Sponsorship and interview inquiries cheerfully welcomed at bsutton@alum.mit.edu.